News

September 2026

By Andrea Williams - Client Partner, Country Manager for the United Arab Emirates, and Head of the Consumer & Retail Practice - Middle East & Africa, Shayma Ibrahim - Country Manager for Saudi Arabia and Narendra Singh - Principal

This analysis draws on recent conversations with CEOs and senior business leaders across banking, retail, technology and advisory in the GCC, alongside current market data from key GCC economies. It seeks to separate short-term shifts in sentiment from changes in customer behaviour that could have longer-term commercial implications.

Across the GCC, demand remains resilient, but customer decision-making is becoming more cautious.
In both B2C and B2B markets, consumers are still spending, companies are still buying and projects are moving forward. What has changed is the level of scrutiny around affordability, timing, flexibility, value and expected return.

For CEOs, the question is whether this is a short-term response to uncertainty or the start of a more lasting shift in customer behaviour. The early signals suggest caution rather than withdrawal, but if uncertainty persists, some of today’s short-term adjustments may become longer-term habits.

These shifts are changing more than the sales cycle. Greater scrutiny around value, timing and flexibility is beginning to influence pricing, proposition design, forecasting and how businesses convert underlying demand into revenue.

Three signals are becoming increasingly visible:

1. Slower decisions do not necessarily mean weaker demand

The data points to moderation, not withdrawal.
In Saudi Arabia, private-sector credit grew 6% year-on-year in July 2026, down from 10% in January. UAE credit remained much stronger, up 18.1% year-on-year by June, while Kuwait recorded 4.8% growth in resident credit, with significant variation across sectors.

Technology investment tells a similar story. LEAP 2026 generated more than US$15 billion in announced investments, launches and strategic partnerships across AI, cloud, data infrastructure and advanced technologies, while 38% of organisations across the UAE and Saudi Arabia already have agentic AI in production.

The pattern is increasingly clear: spending continues, but scrutiny is higher. Critical technology, transformation and efficiency programmes are still moving forward, while less urgent initiatives are taking longer to approve, being resized or postponed.
The same is visible in banking, where larger commitments are being tested more closely against affordability, timing, repayment terms and expected return.

For CEOs, the distinction is important. Slower conversion does not necessarily mean weaker demand. It often means customers need a clearer business case, stronger evidence of value and lower perceived risk before committing.

2. Customers are asking more questions about value

If the first signal is that demand remains present, the second is that the threshold for value is rising.
In Saudi Arabia, consumer spending increased 8% year-on-year in July, while e-commerce sales through Mada rose 26%. In the UAE, demand is more uneven: resident-led and digital spending remains relatively resilient, while tourism-dependent retail and hospitality are under greater pressure.


Retail leaders are seeing this most clearly in higher-ticket and discretionary categories. Essential and value-led propositions remain resilient, while some customers are delaying purchases, trading down or choosing lower-priced alternatives where the difference in quality or experience is not sufficiently clear.

This is putting greater pressure on premium positioning. Consumers will still pay more for quality, convenience, service or experience, but differentiation has to be visible and defensible. Some businesses are already responding by broadening product ranges and reassessing price points.

The same dynamic is emerging in B2B markets. Investment continues where the commercial case is clear — particularly around efficiency, compliance, customer experience and cost reduction. Discretionary spending, however, faces a much higher bar.
Across both B2C and B2B markets, the question is increasingly the same: what am I getting in return for this commitment?

3. Flexibility is becoming part of the value proposition

As customers become more selective about when they commit and what they expect in return, flexibility is becoming part of the buying decision itself.

Recent developments in both the UAE and Saudi Arabia reflect that change. In the UAE, BNPL activity from major providers was incorporated into national credit reports from July 2026, reflecting the growing role of flexible consumer financing. In Saudi Arabia, new consumer-finance licences allow purchases of up to SAR 50,000 to be spread over as many as 12 monthly payments. The direction is clear: customers increasingly expect more choice not only in what they buy, but in how and when they commit.

The same behaviour is appearing in B2B markets. Leaders we have spoken with are seeing greater interest in phased implementation, modular solutions and commercial structures that reduce the level of upfront commitment. Customers are not necessarily stepping away from investment; they are looking to commit progressively, with clearer evidence of return before expanding further.

This matters because flexibility is moving beyond payment terms and becoming part of proposition design. For consumers, that is most visible in financing and payment choice. For corporate customers, it is showing up in sequencing, scope and the level of initial commitment.

For CEOs, the challenge is to respond without simply giving away economics. The opportunity is to reduce friction in the commitment without eroding margins, transferring disproportionate risk to the business or weakening the underlying proposition.

The real challenge is separating temporary reactions from lasting change

Taken together, the signals are consistent: demand remains present, but customers are taking longer to decide, applying greater scrutiny to value and seeking more flexibility in how they commit.

For leadership teams, the more important question is what sits behind that hesitation. Are decisions simply being deferred until visibility improves, or are customers resetting their expectations around price, value, risk and commitment?

That distinction will become increasingly important. Some delayed spending will return as confidence improves. Other behaviours — particularly greater scrutiny of value, shorter commitment horizons and expectations of flexibility — may prove more durable.

For CEOs, the risk lies in misreading one for the other. Pulling back too aggressively could mean sacrificing position while underlying demand remains intact. Equally, assuming customers will simply return to previous buying patterns could leave businesses slow to adapt to changes that are becoming structural.

The fourth-quarter trading period and year-end budgeting cycle should provide clearer evidence, as consumer spending, corporate investment and 2027 priorities come into sharper focus.

For now, one conclusion stands out: customers have not stopped spending, but they increasingly need a stronger reason — and often a lower-risk path — to commit.

That raises the next question. If customers are becoming more selective about where they allocate their money, how are GCC business owners and family capital responding to the same environment?

That is where the next article in this series turns.

These themes will also be part of the discussion at the GCC Region CEO Roundtable Breakfast in Dubai on 22nd September 2026, where senior leaders will explore “From Market Signals to Leadership Decisions” and consider how changing market signals can be translated into confident, well-timed leadership decisions.